This media tech company uses data science and AI to predict the winner of the U.S. Presidential election on Nov. 3
Phillip Stutts is the founder and CEO of media company Win Big Media. Stutts has been watching politics for over two decades. After 24 years and 1,283 political campaign victories, including three winning U.S. Presidential races, Stutts provides an exclusive analysis of the upcoming election and a breakdown of how he sees the race heading into election day. His breakdown is not close to what you will read in the mainstream media.
In his latest post on Medium, Stutts answers the question everyone is asking: Who is going to win the presidential election on November 3? As part of this research, Win Big Media partnered with the largest data collection, analytics, and AI company in the United States to get a behind the scenes look at what’s really going on with American voters.
Unlike the conventional polls, Win Big Media uses its database of 200 million+ Americans, 550 million+ connected devices, tracking 10 billion+ daily online decisions, and over 1 trillion daily searches, and comparing it to all the other outside data and polling. Armed with the data, Stutts thinks he has a unique perspective on how this election will turn out.
Stutts’ election analysis includes five major highlights:
- State of the voters.
- The top motivation driving voters to the polls
- Voters are being misled in three major ways.
- 8 key factors that will decide the election
Stutts concluded his article with a prediction of what he thinks is going to happen on election day. Below is how he explains it:
HERE IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN:
I’ve spent 24 years in politics, I’ve been a part of 1,283 winning elections. Here is my prediction on the total vote, the popular vote winner and the electoral vote winner:
WHO WINS ON THE CRITICAL POLICY ISSUES? In our data, I’m seeing a huge swing with voters seeking safety with ending the riots, funding of law enforcement, growing of the economy — which grew at its fastest pace in history in the 3rd quarter — and a desire for a COVID-19 vaccine. These all favor Trump. I am not only seeing this amongst working-class white voters, but also with African-American and Hispanic voters.
WHO WINS THE BRAND WAR? The clear winner on what drives the brand message is strength over weakness. As indicated above, Trump has defined himself with certainty on his strength, reinforcing the voters’ inner unconsciousness of seeking safety. These voters may hold their nose and vote for Trump, but they know they will be safer by doing it.
SWING STATE OUTLOOK. The “Shy Trump Voter’’ is one of the most underreported factors of this election. It was a proven fact in 2016, and it has only grown in the last four years. For example, do you think a suburban mom in Pennsylvania is going to tell a random polling operator that she is voting for Trump? No way. She fears if she explains her vote, she will be “exposed,” or worse, canceled. Robert Cahaly of the aforementioned Trafalgar Group, thinks there is a 5–9% underreported vote for Trump (in each of the key swing states). While it may be that big, I will assume it represents an additional 2–5 points from what we are seeing in public polls. In addition, the Trump campaign’s Get Out The Vote apparatus is head and shoulders better than the Biden campaign. Therefore, I believe it’s worth 1% additional point for Trump in these swing states. Considering the “Shy Trump Vote” and the GOTV effort advantage, here is my prediction of the remaining toss up states:1. Biden will win Minnesota, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Maine’s one toss-up electoral vote.
2. Trump will win Iowa, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, and Nebraska’s one toss-up electoral vote.
POPULAR VOTE WINNER: Joe Biden. Based on the data I am seeing, I predict 156.9 million total votes — an increase of 18 million+ voters compared to 2016. Despite a tight electoral college race, it’s clear that Joe Biden will win the popular vote, thanks in large part to New York and California.
ELECTORAL VOTE WINNER: Donald Trump. Trump wins the Electoral College 295 to 243.
Stuatts is giving everyone FREE access to all of our data and surveys (March, April, May, June, July, August, September, and October + our two data reports/surveys analyzing the protest culture on consumers) — just go to winbigmedia.com and click on the “COVID-19 Consumer Research” tab. And, if you know someone that will benefit from these key insights, forward this article and/or data to them so they can use it in this critical moment.