Data from the UK’s ZOE covid symptom study app shows covid rates among vaccinated people have roughly tripled in the last two weeks; higher among the unvaccinated

Late last month, Public Health England, an executive agency of the Department of Health and Social Care in the United Kingdom, found that more vaccinated people died of the Delta variant in the UK than the unvaccinated. The data further shows that the death rate is 8.45 times higher for the vaccinated.

In a 69-page report titled, “SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England,” Public Health England shared detailed surveillance of Delta (VOC21APR-02, B.1.617.2) and Lambda (C.37, VUI-21JUN-01). According to the report, a total of  7,235 Delta variant cases were reported among fully vaccinated (after 2 doses) while a higher number, 53,822 Delta variant cases, were reported among the unvaccinated.

Almost about a week after the report was published, new data from the UK’s ZOE covid symptom study, an app that has proven effective at predicting Covid trends, found that covid incidence rates among vaccinated people have roughly tripled in the last two weeks. The rate is even higher among the unvaccinated.

In a report titled, “Complacency could condemn thousands more to long COVID,” the ZOE COVID Study incidence estimated that among unvaccinated people in the UK there are currently 22,638 new daily symptomatic cases of COVID on average, based on PCR test data from up to five days ago. An increase of 17% from 19,228 last week. In addition, the incidence rates among people who have had one dose of the vaccines are now over 3%, higher than what it was in January.

Comparatively, the ZOE COVID Study found that “there are currently 11,084 new daily symptomatic cases in partly or fully vaccinated people, an increase of 85% from 5,982 new cases last week (Graph 1). The positivity rate is still much higher in those with just a first dose, compared to those who are double vaccinated.” In terms of prevalence, on average 1 in 159 people in the UK currently have symptomatic COVID.

“The ZOE data continues to show that the number of new cases are rising. UK rates are among the highest in the world, out-pacing the USA, Australia, Italy, France and Spain. While the rate of increase seems to be slowing down, we’re yet to reach the peak of this latest wave. Even though we’re doing away with COVID restrictions in the UK, COVID isn’t done with us.” the company said in a press statement released today.

“While it seems that the link between cases and deaths has been fundamentally weakened thanks to an excellent vaccine rollout, we are still seeing a correlation between new cases and Long COVID. Vaccines reduce the chances of people getting Long COVID, by reducing the risk of seriously debilitating symptoms and also by reducing the chances of an infection lasting more than three months. But unfortunately, if new cases continue to increase then many more thousands of people, especially the young, will be affected by long-term symptoms that leave sufferers unable to live life normally,” ZOE added.

Graph 1. Daily new cases of COVID in the UK by vaccination status

Graph 2. Positivity rate in vaccinated (1st and 2nd dose) and unvaccinated

Even though vaccines are being administered to prevent the coronavirus (COVID-19) caused by SARS-CoV-2, the findings further show that they are not really effective at preventing the new variants of the virus. Hats off to former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson who first spotted the study.

In a post on Twitter, Berenson wrote, “URGENT: This is what vaccine failure looks like in real-time. These data are from the UK ZOE #covid symptom study, an app that has proven effective at predicting Covid trends. In the last two weeks, rates among vaccinated people have roughly tripled…”

URGENT: This is what vaccine failure looks like in real time. These data are from the UK ZOE #covid symptom study, an app that has proven effective at predicting Covid trends. In the last two weeks, rates among vaccinated people have roughly tripled… pic.twitter.com/pV8gucdQjM

— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) July 8, 2021