Coronavirus doomsday prediction: How the experts have failed us with faulty models by using skewed COVID-19 data to stoke panic

On March 12, we wrote a story titled: “Coronavirus Panic: What the media is not telling you even if COVID-19 mortality rate is 3.4%.” The story is about how the fear-driven media hype is not supported by facts or science. As it turns out, the media is not the only organization scaring people.

A faulty model developed by scientists at Imperial College in London estimated that up to 2.2 million Americans could die if no actions were taken to stop transmission in the US. The report about the model immediately created a domino effect of panic responses.

An another scenario, the study said that COVID-19 could kill 500,000 Britons. However, the group seems to be walking back their predictions. In a new report, Neil Ferguson, the head of the group behind the study, put the number below 20,000. Ferguson did not stop there. He also went on social media to further clarify himself.

In a post on Twitter, Ferguson said: “I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.”

1/4 – I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.

— neil_ferguson (@neil_ferguson) March 26, 2020