Coronavirus fatality rate could be as low as 0.26%, CDC says
Nickie Louise
Posted On May 24, 2020
On March 12, we wrote an article titled, “Coronavirus Panic: What the media is not telling you even if COVID-19 mortality rate is 3.4%.” The story was written in response to mainstream media fear and mongering during the early months of the virus outbreak. We were right. As it turns out, the mortality rate is not 3.4%, but about 0.26%. That’s a fraction of a percent.
According to new estimates released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the COVID-19 infection fatality rate may be as low as 0.26%, a number that only doubles the seasonal flu but significantly lower than earlier estimates. Remember back on March 16, a 20‐page report from Neil Ferguson’s team at Imperial College London quickly gathered a lot of attention after the team’s model estimated that around 1% of infections of COVID-19 would ultimately result in 2.2 million deaths in the United States from coronavirus. The model later turned out to be wrong.
This week, the CDC in collaboration with Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Responseexternal icon (ASPR), released a list of what it called “COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios.” The document laid out five different scenarios to help inform decisions by modelers and public health officials who utilize mathematical modeling.
One of the scenarios (Scenario 5) is called “current best estimate” of the parameters of the viral pandemic. That scenario states that the overall fatality rate of infections that show symptoms is around 0.4%. Yet the CDC says it estimates that around 35% of all infectious are asymptomatic, meaning that the total infection fatality rate under the agency’s “best estimate” scenario is around 0.26%, or a little more than twice that of the seasonal flu.et the CDC says it estimates that around 35% of all infectious are asymptomatic, meaning that the total infection fatality rate under the agency’s “best estimate” scenario is around 0.26%, or a little more than twice that of the seasonal flu.
Parameter values are based on data received by CDC prior to 4/29/2020
| Parameter | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | Scenario 4 | Scenario 5:Current Best Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R0Source: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, ASPR and CDC | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2.5 |
| Symptomatic Case Fatality Ratio, stratified by age in yearsSource: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC |
0-49: 0.0002 |
0-49: 0.0002 |
0-49: 0.001 |
0-49: 0.001 |
0-49: 0.0005 |
|
50-64: 0.001 |
50-64: 0.001 |
50-64: 0.006 |
50-64: 0.006 |
50-64: 0.002 |
|
|
65+: 0.006 |
65+: 0.006 |
65+: 0.032 |
65+: 0.032 |
65+: 0.013 |
|
|
Overall: 0.002 |
Overall: 0.002 |
Overall: 0.010 |
Overall: 0.010 |
Overall: 0.004 |
|
| Symptomatic Case Hospitalization Ratio, stratified by age in yearsSource: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC |
0–49: 0.013 |
0–49: 0.013 |
0–49: 0.026 |
0–49: 0.026 |
0–49: 0.017 |
|
50–64: 0.036 |
50–64: 0.036 |
50–64: 0.057 |
50–64: 0.057 |
50–64: 0.045 |
|
|
65+: 0.052 |
65+: 0.052 |
65+: 0.10 |
65+: 0.10 |
65+: 0.074 |
|
|
Overall: 0.028 |
Overall: 0.028 |
Overall: 0.041 |
Overall: 0.041 |
Overall: 0.034 |
|
| Percent of infections that are asymptomaticSource: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, ASPR and CDC | 20% | 50% | 20% | 50% | 35% |
| Infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals relative to symptomatic individualsSource: Assumption, ASPR and CDC | 50% | 100% | 50% | 100% | 100% |
