IHME model, the most reliable coronavirus model, just lowered its projections (again) for COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. from 81,766 to 60,415

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model has dramatically lowered its projections for coronavirus deaths in the U.S. by 25 percent to 60,415. On Tuesday, the IHME estimated 81,766 people will die from coronavirus disease by August 4, 2020. On Wednesday, that estimate was lowered to 60,415. As of writing, at least 14,646 Americans have died from the deadly coronavirus.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is a research institute working in the area of global health statistics and impact evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle. Widely believed to be the most reliable mode and also cited by the White House Coronavirus Task Force, the IHME model has come under criticism for vastly overstating projections of regular and ICU hospital beds needed, but its death projections to date have closely tracked with actual data.

This is the second time the model the U.S. deaths projections have been revised downward since April 1, when it forecast 93,765 U.S. fatalities. The model now forecasts the peak of those deaths to arrive  four days earlie on April 12, instead of April 16 as previously projected.

“Our estimates assume statewide social distancing measures are continuing in states where they have already been enacted, and for those states without such measures in place, it is assumed they will be will be in place within seven days,” IHME director Christopher Murray said on April 5.

“If social distancing measures are relaxed or not implemented, the U.S. will see greater death tolls, the death peak will be later, the burden on hospitals will be much greater, and the economic costs will continue to grow,” Murray said.