Coronavirus will infect 50% of the world population, London-based Economist Intelligence Unit predicts

As the world grapples with the deadly coronavirus, the reported cases of COVID-19 have surpassed 200,000 worldwide, with more than 8,000 people killed by the virus globally, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. The good news is that more than 82,000 people around the world have recovered from the virus.

The current trend does not look good for countries like Italy, Iran and Spain. Based on the forecast, analysts from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EUI), the research and analysis division of Economist Group providing forecasting and advisory services through research and analysis, said Wednesday that the new coronavirus will infect half of the global population and have a fatality rate of up to 3%, according to a report from CNBC.

“We assume that the virus will infect around 50% of the world population; 20% of the cases will be severe, and 1-3% will result in deaths,” analysts from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said in a note.

As a result of the pandemic, the EIU predicted global growth would stand at just 1% for 2020 — down from its outlook of 2.3% before the outbreak began. It would mark the lowest rate in global gross domestic product (GDP) growth since the global financial crisis, analysts said.

“Death ratios will depend on the capacity of countries to effectively detect, track, and contain the epidemic,” EIU analysts said. “Death ratios will be higher in countries with poor healthcare systems — in Sub-Saharan Africa for instance.”

The EIU reportedly warned in its note that the coronavirus “will become a seasonal disease, with another outbreak in Winter 2020/21,” with analysts adding that they did not expect a vaccine to come onto the market until at least the end of next year.