Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales predicts Bitcoin could fall below $10K by 2050

Bitcoin hit an all-time high of about $126,198 on October 6, 2025. Since then, the cryptocurrency has swung sharply through late 2025 and early 2026, and was trading at $66,783.03 at the time of writing.

Volatility, however, is nothing new for Bitcoin. The asset has survived crashes, regulatory bans, and repeated predictions of its demise over the past decade. But according to Wikipedia co-founder Jimmy Wales, survival alone does not guarantee long-term dominance.

In a recent post on X, Wales argued that while Bitcoin is unlikely to disappear entirely, its long-term price trajectory could be far more modest than many crypto believers expect. His projection: Bitcoin could trade below $10,000 (in today’s dollars) by 2050.

Bitcoin isn’t going to zero, but it may never become the world’s dominant money

Wales struck a nuanced tone. He pushed back on the idea that Bitcoin will collapse to zero, pointing to the resilience of its underlying design.

“People who think that Bitcoin is going to zero are likely mistaken,” he wrote, noting that the network would probably continue operating indefinitely unless hit by a major cryptographic failure or a successful 51% attack.

Even in those scenarios, Wales suggested the ecosystem could adapt by forking and carrying on.

That view aligns with a growing consensus among some technologists: Bitcoin’s architecture is durable, but durability alone doesn’t ensure economic supremacy.

A blunt critique of Bitcoin’s core use cases

Where Wales diverges sharply from crypto bulls is on utility.

He described Bitcoin as a “complete failure as a currency” and questioned its effectiveness as a store of value. Based on that assessment, he does not see Bitcoin becoming the world’s dominant form of money.

“What is can do, though, is decline to a price consistent with hobbyist tinkering. Because it is a complete failure as a currency, as a store of value, etc., it isn’t going to become the dominant money of the future. So I’d suggest a 2050 price target of under $10,000 in today’s dollars. Possibly much lower,”  Wales added.

Instead, Wales expects the asset to settle into a niche role.

His base case: by 2050, Bitcoin’s price could fall to levels consistent with what he characterized as “hobbyist tinkering.”

People who think that Bitcoin is going to zero are likely mistaken. The design is robust enough that it will continue to exist in perpetuity, barring some currently unforeseen breakdown in cryptography or a surprise 51% attack (even then, a fork would carry on I would imagine).…

— Jimmy Wales (@jimmy_wales) February 25, 2026

That framing challenges the long-standing narrative that Bitcoin is inevitably marching toward global reserve status.

Why the prediction matters

Wales is not a crypto founder or market analyst. But his comments carry weight for a different reason.

As the co-founder of Wikipedia, one of the internet’s most enduring open platforms, Wales has firsthand experience with decentralized systems that achieve global scale. His perspective reflects a builder’s lens rather than a trader’s optimism.

Still, Bitcoin’s history is filled with confident predictions that aged poorly on both sides of the debate.

Since its launch in 2009, the asset has:

• Survived multiple 70%+ drawdowns

• Outlived hundreds of competing cryptocurrencies

• Continued attracting institutional interest despite volatility

Whether those trends continue for the next quarter century remains an open question.

The long-term debate is far from settled

Wales’ forecast lands at a moment when Bitcoin sits at the center of competing narratives.

Supporters argue that:

• Institutional adoption is still early

• Supply scarcity strengthens over time

• Global monetary instability could boost demand

Critics counter that:

• Volatility limits real-world currency use

• Regulatory pressure could intensify

• Competing technologies may erode relevance

Both camps have credible arguments, which is why long-range price targets—especially those stretching to 2050—should be viewed as informed opinions rather than certainties.

Bottom line

Jimmy Wales isn’t predicting Bitcoin’s death. Far from it.

His thesis is more subtle: Bitcoin may prove technically resilient while falling short economically. In his view, the network could still be running decades from now—just without the trillion-dollar ambitions many supporters envision.

Whether Bitcoin becomes digital gold, hobbyist infrastructure, or something in between is a question the market will keep answering in real time.